Understanding the unknowns: the impact of uncertainty in the geosciences
Understanding the unknowns: the impact of uncertainty in the geosciences
Editor(s): L. Perez-Diaz, J. Alcalde, C. Bond, N. M. W. Roberts, F. Boekhout, and B. Grasemann
Purpose of the special issue: the idea for this issue arises from EGU General Assembly 2018 session TS11.5/GD10.5, "Understanding the unknowns: recognition, quantification, influence and minimisation of uncertainty in the geosciences". The rationale behind this proposal is to bring together a number of articles aimed at highlighting the importance of understanding uncertainty, often neglected by interpreters, geomodellers, and experimentalists, perhaps due to the societal expectation of a single (flawless) deterministic model and corresponding outputs. In this special issue, we hope to bring together geoscientists from a variety of fields interested in developing a more integrated understanding of how quantifying and recognising uncertainty in geological interpretation, models, and experiments broadens their applicability and increases their value.

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15 May 2020
Introduction: Handling uncertainty in the geosciences: identification, mitigation and communication
Lucía Pérez-Díaz, Juan Alcalde, and Clare E. Bond
Solid Earth, 11, 889–897, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-889-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-889-2020, 2020
30 Mar 2020
Uncertainties in break-up markers along the Iberia–Newfoundland margins illustrated by new seismic data
Annabel Causer, Lucía Pérez-Díaz, Jürgen Adam, and Graeme Eagles
Solid Earth, 11, 397–417, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-397-2020,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-11-397-2020, 2020
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20 Dec 2019
The impact of rheological uncertainty on dynamic topography predictions
Ömer F. Bodur and Patrice F. Rey
Solid Earth, 10, 2167–2178, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-2167-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-2167-2019, 2019
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18 Nov 2019
Actors, actions, and uncertainties: optimizing decision-making based on 3-D structural geological models
Fabian Antonio Stamm, Miguel de la Varga, and Florian Wellmann
Solid Earth, 10, 2015–2043, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-2015-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-2015-2019, 2019
15 Oct 2019
Uncertainty in regional estimates of capacity for carbon capture and storage
Mark Wilkinson and Debbie Polson
Solid Earth, 10, 1707–1715, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1707-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1707-2019, 2019
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10 Oct 2019
Topological analysis in Monte Carlo simulation for uncertainty propagation
Evren Pakyuz-Charrier, Mark Jessell, Jérémie Giraud, Mark Lindsay, and Vitaliy Ogarko
Solid Earth, 10, 1663–1684, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1663-2019, 2019
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09 Oct 2019
Fault interpretation in seismic reflection data: an experiment analysing the impact of conceptual model anchoring and vertical exaggeration
Juan Alcalde, Clare E. Bond, Gareth Johnson, Armelle Kloppenburg, Oriol Ferrer, Rebecca Bell, and Puy Ayarza
Solid Earth, 10, 1651–1662, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1651-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1651-2019, 2019
27 Sep 2019
Quantifying the impact of the structural uncertainty on the gross rock volume in the Lubina and Montanazo oil fields (Western Mediterranean)
Carla Patricia Bárbara, Patricia Cabello, Alexandre Bouche, Ingrid Aarnes, Carlos Gordillo, Oriol Ferrer, Maria Roma, and Pau Arbués
Solid Earth, 10, 1597–1619, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1597-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1597-2019, 2019
03 Sep 2019
How can geologic decision-making under uncertainty be improved?
Cristina G. Wilson, Clare E. Bond, and Thomas F. Shipley
Solid Earth, 10, 1469–1488, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1469-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1469-2019, 2019
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05 Jul 2019
Quantification of uncertainty in 3-D seismic interpretation: implications for deterministic and stochastic geomodeling and machine learning
Alexander Schaaf and Clare E. Bond
Solid Earth, 10, 1049–1061, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1049-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-1049-2019, 2019
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27 Jun 2019
Uncertainty in fault seal parameters: implications for CO2 column height retention and storage capacity in geological CO2 storage projects
Johannes M. Miocic, Gareth Johnson, and Clare E. Bond
Solid Earth, 10, 951–967, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-951-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-951-2019, 2019
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13 Jun 2019
Constraining the geotherm beneath the British Isles from Bayesian inversion of Curie depth: integrated modelling of magnetic, geothermal, and seismic data
Ben Mather and Javier Fullea
Solid Earth, 10, 839–850, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-839-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-839-2019, 2019
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11 Apr 2019
How do we see fractures? Quantifying subjective bias in fracture data collection
Billy J. Andrews, Jennifer J. Roberts, Zoe K. Shipton, Sabina Bigi, M. Chiara Tartarello, and Gareth Johnson
Solid Earth, 10, 487–516, https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-487-2019,https://doi.org/10.5194/se-10-487-2019, 2019
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